基于ACP方法的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情管控措施效果评估

马亮; 杨妹; 艾川; 朱正秋; 陈海亮; 朱蒙娜; 段伟; 邱晓刚; 吕欣; 陈彬

doi:10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202010

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基于ACP方法的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情管控措施效果评估

学术论文 | 更新时间：2024-06-05

- 基于ACP方法的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情管控措施效果评估
- The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach
- 智能科学与技术学报 2020年2卷第1期页码：88-98
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国防科技大学系统工程学院，湖南长沙 410073
  2. 国防科技大学北京学科交叉中心，北京 100101
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "马亮（1990- ），男，博士，国防科技大学北京学科交叉中心助理研究员，主要研究方向为系统仿真、多agent建模仿真、人群疏散建模仿真、公共卫生应急管理" ]
  [ "杨妹（1985- ），女，博士，国防科技大学系统工程学院副研究员，主要研究方向为复杂系统建模与仿真、并行与分布仿真等" ]
  [ "艾川（1991- ），男，国防科技大学系统工程学院博士生，主要研究方向为舆情传播的建模和仿真" ]
  [ "朱正秋（1994- ），男，国防科技大学系统工程学院博士生，主要研究方向为城市计算、群智感知、博弈论及应急管理仿真" ]
  [ "陈海亮（1996- ），男，国防科技大学系统工程学院硕士生，主要研究方向为复杂网络、链路预测、图神经网络在社交网络研究中的应用" ]
  [ "朱蒙娜（1998- ），女，国防科技大学系统工程学院本科生，主要研究方向为复杂网络中社团结构的划分以及网络的构建" ]
  [ "段伟（1983- ），男，博士，国防科技大学系统工程学院副教授，主要研究方向为复杂社会系统建模与仿真、疾病传播模型与传播理论、复杂网络、社会计算、公共卫生应急管理、并行与分布式仿真、平行仿真、多agent建模仿真" ]
  [ "邱晓刚（1963- ），男，博士，国防科技大学系统工程学院教授、博士生导师，主要研究方向为应急管理、公共卫生、多agent建模仿真、知识工程、平行控制、系统仿真" ]
  [ "吕欣（1984- ），男，博士，国防科技大学系统工程学院教授，主要研究方向为大数据挖掘与应急管理、复杂网络与流行病学、人类行为动力学" ]
  [ "陈彬（1981- ），男，博士，国防科技大学系统工程学院副研究员，主要研究方向为基于ACP的仿真运行支撑、平行实验方法" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国家重点研发计划基金资助项目;The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC0806900);国家自然科学基金资助项目;The National Natural Science Foundation of China(71673292);国家自然科学基金资助项目;The National Natural Science Foundation of China(71673294);国家社会科学基金资助项目;The National Social Science Foundation of China(17CGL047)
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202010
  中图分类号： TP391.9
- 网络出版日期：2020-03，
  
  纸质出版日期：2020-03-20
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
马亮, 杨妹, 艾川, 等. 基于ACP方法的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情管控措施效果评估[J]. 智能科学与技术学报, 2020,2(1):88-98.

Liang MA, Mei YANG, Chuan AI, et al. The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach[J]. Chinese journal of intelligent science and technology, 2020, 2(1): 88-98.
马亮, 杨妹, 艾川, 等. 基于ACP方法的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情管控措施效果评估[J]. 智能科学与技术学报, 2020,2(1):88-98. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202010.

Liang MA, Mei YANG, Chuan AI, et al. The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach[J]. Chinese journal of intelligent science and technology, 2020, 2(1): 88-98. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202010.

摘要

利用信息技术手段对疫情管控措施进行评估，从而指导管控措施的实施，对疫情防控具有理论和现实意义。基于ACP方法和统计数据构建了人工城市计算实验平台，建立了针对具体疫情管控的社区、学校、工厂3类典型场所的人工社会模型，通过计算实验对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的管控措施进行评估。结果发现，检验检疫、自我防护管控措施只能够延缓疫情中感染人数峰值的到来，对降低总感染人数的效果不明显，只有经济代价巨大的隔离措施能够显著地抑制疫情的发展。隔离措施的良好效果表明，有效阻断“人-人”传播链是疫情控制的关键环节，因此建议综合采用检验检疫、大数据、人工智能等手段精准筛查病患及潜在感染者。

Abstract

It is theoretical and practical significance for epidemic prevention and control to evaluate epidemic control measures using information technology so as to guide the implementation of epidemic control measures.Based on ACP approach and statistical data

a platform of computation experiment for artificial city was constructed

from which artificial models were established for three typical places

namely community

school and factory

to support the evaluation of specific epidemic control measures.The control measures of COVID-19 were evaluated through the computational experiments.The results showed that the control measures of quarantine and self-protection could only delay the peak of the number of infected people in the epidemic

but had no obvious effect on reducing the total number of infected people.Only the isolation measure with huge economic cost could significantly inhibit the development of the epidemic.The effect of the isolation measures showed that effectively blocking the “person-to-person”transmission chain was the key to the epidemic control.Therefore

it was recommended to adopt comprehensive means involving inspection and quarantine

big data

artificial intelligence and so on to accurately screen the patients and potential infected people.

关键词

Keywords

references

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