The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach

Liang MA; Mei YANG; Chuan AI; Zhengqiu ZHU; Hailiang CHEN; Mengna ZHU; Wei DUAN; Xiaogang QIU; Xin LU; Bin CHEN

doi:10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202010

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The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach

Regular Papers | 更新时间：2024-06-05

- The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach
- Chinese Journal of Intelligent Science and Technology Vol. 2, Issue 1, Pages: 88-98(2020)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国防科技大学系统工程学院，湖南长沙 410073
  2. 国防科技大学北京学科交叉中心，北京 100101
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202010
  CLC： TP391.9
- Published Online：2020-03，
  
  Published：20 March 2020
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Liang MA, Mei YANG, Chuan AI, et al. The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach[J]. Chinese journal of intelligent science and technology, 2020, 2(1): 88-98.
DOI：

Liang MA, Mei YANG, Chuan AI, et al. The evaluation of the control measures for COVID-19 based on ACP approach[J]. Chinese journal of intelligent science and technology, 2020, 2(1): 88-98. DOI： 10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202010.

摘要

利用信息技术手段对疫情管控措施进行评估，从而指导管控措施的实施，对疫情防控具有理论和现实意义。基于ACP方法和统计数据构建了人工城市计算实验平台，建立了针对具体疫情管控的社区、学校、工厂3类典型场所的人工社会模型，通过计算实验对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的管控措施进行评估。结果发现，检验检疫、自我防护管控措施只能够延缓疫情中感染人数峰值的到来，对降低总感染人数的效果不明显，只有经济代价巨大的隔离措施能够显著地抑制疫情的发展。隔离措施的良好效果表明，有效阻断“人-人”传播链是疫情控制的关键环节，因此建议综合采用检验检疫、大数据、人工智能等手段精准筛查病患及潜在感染者。

Abstract

It is theoretical and practical significance for epidemic prevention and control to evaluate epidemic control measures using information technology so as to guide the implementation of epidemic control measures.Based on ACP approach and statistical data

a platform of computation experiment for artificial city was constructed

from which artificial models were established for three typical places

namely community

school and factory

to support the evaluation of specific epidemic control measures.The control measures of COVID-19 were evaluated through the computational experiments.The results showed that the control measures of quarantine and self-protection could only delay the peak of the number of infected people in the epidemic

but had no obvious effect on reducing the total number of infected people.Only the isolation measure with huge economic cost could significantly inhibit the development of the epidemic.The effect of the isolation measures showed that effectively blocking the “person-to-person”transmission chain was the key to the epidemic control.Therefore

it was recommended to adopt comprehensive means involving inspection and quarantine

big data

artificial intelligence and so on to accurately screen the patients and potential infected people.

关键词

Keywords

references

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